Bloomberg Businessweek performed a review of the best available alternative numbers for China's economy. It reveals a story strikingly similar to that told by official statistics. Real estate is weak, and that is denting industrial production. But overseas sales are resilient, and so is consumption by China’s middle class. With inflation low and stimulus efforts so far limited, the government has scope to do more to boost China’s economic growth.
A trawl of the news reveals that fears of an imminent collapse in China’s growth have eased. A search for stories with the words “China” and “hard landing” shows a fall to 86 stories in July from a recent high of 175 in June. News coverage also confirms that China’s government has kept its stimulus in the “mini” category. A little more than 1,000 stories used the words “China” and “stimulus” in July, compared with a high of 2,900 in March 2009—the time of the government’s 4 trillion yuan splurge.
Nextbigfuture take on data roughly confirming the official economic story
China's economy is in a transition phase. China being able to grow at 7.0-7.5% from now through 2016 and at 6.0-7.0% from 2017 to 2020 will give China the time to grow its consumer and service economies. By 2020, China's economy would be about 50% bigger than it is now. This would also make China's economy 30-35% larger than the US economy in 2020.
China's per capita income on a nominal basis would be about $13000 and on a purchasing power parity basis would be about $22000. This would be put China between Mexico and Malyasia in per capita GDP PPP. This is about where South Korea was in 2005.
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A trawl of the news reveals that fears of an imminent collapse in China’s growth have eased. A search for stories with the words “China” and “hard landing” shows a fall to 86 stories in July from a recent high of 175 in June. News coverage also confirms that China’s government has kept its stimulus in the “mini” category. A little more than 1,000 stories used the words “China” and “stimulus” in July, compared with a high of 2,900 in March 2009—the time of the government’s 4 trillion yuan splurge.
Nextbigfuture take on data roughly confirming the official economic story
China's economy is in a transition phase. China being able to grow at 7.0-7.5% from now through 2016 and at 6.0-7.0% from 2017 to 2020 will give China the time to grow its consumer and service economies. By 2020, China's economy would be about 50% bigger than it is now. This would also make China's economy 30-35% larger than the US economy in 2020.
China's per capita income on a nominal basis would be about $13000 and on a purchasing power parity basis would be about $22000. This would be put China between Mexico and Malyasia in per capita GDP PPP. This is about where South Korea was in 2005.
Read more »
