Dun and Bradstreet have a global economic outlook for the next 5 years.
The recovery from the 2008-2009 recession is the slowest and most problematic of the past century, highlighted by changes in D and B’s country risk ratings: 56 of the 132 countries (42.4%) rate worse than in October 2009 when the recovery started, while only 23 (17.4%) rate better. This level of downward movement is extremely unusual for a recovery and reflects the unique circumstances of this cycle versus prior recoveries. Indeed in 2012, three years into the recovery, D&B downgraded 32 countries—the third highest number of downgrades in one calendar year—while only upgrading seven.
* The recovery from the 2008–09 recession remains the most challenging in the past century.
* Deleveraging in the private and public sectors remains an inhibitor to growth throughout the forecast period.
* These pressures are offset by substantial improvement in the health of the corporate sector.
* Structural imbalances in key emerging economies are potential headwinds.
* The macro-economy, fiscal imbalances, and continued quantitative easing constitute high risks.
* New political risks have arisen as a result of the Arab Spring.
* The recovery will be uneven across regions and in time.
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The recovery from the 2008-2009 recession is the slowest and most problematic of the past century, highlighted by changes in D and B’s country risk ratings: 56 of the 132 countries (42.4%) rate worse than in October 2009 when the recovery started, while only 23 (17.4%) rate better. This level of downward movement is extremely unusual for a recovery and reflects the unique circumstances of this cycle versus prior recoveries. Indeed in 2012, three years into the recovery, D&B downgraded 32 countries—the third highest number of downgrades in one calendar year—while only upgrading seven.
* The recovery from the 2008–09 recession remains the most challenging in the past century.
* Deleveraging in the private and public sectors remains an inhibitor to growth throughout the forecast period.
* These pressures are offset by substantial improvement in the health of the corporate sector.
* Structural imbalances in key emerging economies are potential headwinds.
* The macro-economy, fiscal imbalances, and continued quantitative easing constitute high risks.
* New political risks have arisen as a result of the Arab Spring.
* The recovery will be uneven across regions and in time.
Read more »
