Without more intervention the world is on track to stop Ebola in 2016 after about 1 millino deaths

A new model by David Fisman and Ashleigh Tuite of the University of Toronto in Canada– the first to take account of efforts to fight infections – suggests that if things continue as they have been up until now, 700,000 people could have had the virus by the time the epidemic in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone subsides – in early 2016. Fisman's prediction is based on reported cases of Ebola. (The previous prediction of more than a million cases by this coming January had assumed that the actual number of cases is 2.5 times the reported cases. Factoring in underreporting results in Fisman's model having 1.75 million cases. 50-70% of those cases would result in death so around 900,000-1.23 million deaths.

Lancet - Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis

Ebola: no time to waste

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