China’s statistics bureau is predicted to announce results of its third national economic census this month after a year’s worth of interviews and data collection from millions of businesses. The past two, published in 2009 and 2005, prompted additions to gross domestic product estimates as the value of services was revised higher.
This time around, 2013 GDP will be revised up by 1 to 3 percent -- as much as about $275 billion -- and 2014 GDP growth will be bolstered by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point, according to the median forecast of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Liu expects the revisions could add 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point to 2014 GDP growth and has increased his estimate from 7.2 percent to 7.5 percent on accelerated budget spending, stabilization in property and seasonal data effects.
The national economic census is conducted about every five years to gather information on the manufacturing and services industries. Over 10 million businesses and about 60 million individual enterprises were visited early this year by about 3 million census takers, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
The nationwide review may help offset underrepresentation of China’s rapidly-expanding services industry. The past two censuses led to a 16.8 percent revision to 2004 GDP size and a 4.4 percent increase in 2008.
I have adjusted the 2015 GDP forecast from the Economist. Hong Kong and Macau add about $370 billion to China's GDP total would put 13.74 trillion China and at 74.5% of the US economy. 2% annual strengthening in currency and 4% annual differential in GDP growth over the USA would mean China would pass the USA in overall nominal economy in 2020. Also, 2019 would have another China business census adjustment. Odds would indicate that 2019 would be when China (including Hong Kong and Macua) would pass the USA because of the 2019 business census. Hong Kong and Macau are part of China but are separated in many statistical reports.
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This time around, 2013 GDP will be revised up by 1 to 3 percent -- as much as about $275 billion -- and 2014 GDP growth will be bolstered by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point, according to the median forecast of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Liu expects the revisions could add 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point to 2014 GDP growth and has increased his estimate from 7.2 percent to 7.5 percent on accelerated budget spending, stabilization in property and seasonal data effects.
The national economic census is conducted about every five years to gather information on the manufacturing and services industries. Over 10 million businesses and about 60 million individual enterprises were visited early this year by about 3 million census takers, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
The nationwide review may help offset underrepresentation of China’s rapidly-expanding services industry. The past two censuses led to a 16.8 percent revision to 2004 GDP size and a 4.4 percent increase in 2008.
I have adjusted the 2015 GDP forecast from the Economist. Hong Kong and Macau add about $370 billion to China's GDP total would put 13.74 trillion China and at 74.5% of the US economy. 2% annual strengthening in currency and 4% annual differential in GDP growth over the USA would mean China would pass the USA in overall nominal economy in 2020. Also, 2019 would have another China business census adjustment. Odds would indicate that 2019 would be when China (including Hong Kong and Macua) would pass the USA because of the 2019 business census. Hong Kong and Macau are part of China but are separated in many statistical reports.
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