Child policies will determine if China's working age population drops 12% by 2050 or increases 5%

Across China, only one million eligible families applied to have a second child under the newly relaxed policy, just a third of the number authorities had expected.

“A lot of women working in high-competitive jobs look like they are less likely to have a second child,” Professor Zheng ZhenZhen of the Chinese Academy of Social Science’s Institute of population and labor statistics said.

Some experts are calling for an accelerated removal of restrictions on a second child, warning that the country’s birthrate is moving towards a dangerously low level.

A poll taken place in five provinces in China, including Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing showed it doesn’t matter if families already had a child, over 30 percent said they wouldn’t have a second child.

A report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also known as CASS, said the fertility rate in China is at a dangerously low level, at 1.4 children per woman.

This number is close to the global warning of a low fertility trap, which could result in an ageing population and a labor shortage. Experts are calling on the government to fully lift all restrictions to have a second child, and the sooner the better, along with adjusting the family planning policy even more.


Stanford analysis of working age (15-64) population in 2050 based on 2008 UN medium projection. This is before the recent China policy shift which is boosting births by 1 million per year from about 15.5 million per year.

Read more »