China will be fine-tuning One child policy according to a spokesman for China's National Health and Family Planning Commission.
Mao said a fine-tuning plan has been sent to the State Council and the question now is whether any change will be introduced nationwide or if trial runs will be held in selected areas.
Yuan Xin, a professor in population studies at Nankai University in Tianjin, ruled out any drastic policy change. "Issues surrounding how many children a family can have will, for a long time, still be decided by the government rather than the family itself," he said.
Supporters of change say an adjusted policy in pilot areas will help avoid a possible birth peak in the event of a blanket policy change.
But Yuan said: "Even a nationwide change won't have a major impact on population development.
"In central and western China, or in the countryside, the impact of a relaxed policy could be quite limited because of a relatively low proportion of single children."
There are more than 140 million single children across the mainland, mostly in large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, the coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang as well as northeastern areas, statistics from the commission show.
The rate in China stands at 1.6.
Experts say that with an eased policy the figure might rise to between 1.7 and 1.8, still a relatively low level for population growth.
Bribes probably a factor in resistance to giving up completely on One Child Policy
People in China sometimes pay brokers to bribe officials for documentation for additional children. It can cost up to $1,000 but is still much less than the official fine, which can be as high as 200,000 Renminbi, or more than $31,000.
In one case, he waited until his second child was born and registered both together as twins.
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Mao said a fine-tuning plan has been sent to the State Council and the question now is whether any change will be introduced nationwide or if trial runs will be held in selected areas.
Yuan Xin, a professor in population studies at Nankai University in Tianjin, ruled out any drastic policy change. "Issues surrounding how many children a family can have will, for a long time, still be decided by the government rather than the family itself," he said.
Supporters of change say an adjusted policy in pilot areas will help avoid a possible birth peak in the event of a blanket policy change.
But Yuan said: "Even a nationwide change won't have a major impact on population development.
"In central and western China, or in the countryside, the impact of a relaxed policy could be quite limited because of a relatively low proportion of single children."
There are more than 140 million single children across the mainland, mostly in large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, the coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang as well as northeastern areas, statistics from the commission show.
The rate in China stands at 1.6.
Experts say that with an eased policy the figure might rise to between 1.7 and 1.8, still a relatively low level for population growth.
Bribes probably a factor in resistance to giving up completely on One Child Policy
People in China sometimes pay brokers to bribe officials for documentation for additional children. It can cost up to $1,000 but is still much less than the official fine, which can be as high as 200,000 Renminbi, or more than $31,000.
In one case, he waited until his second child was born and registered both together as twins.
Read more »
