Top Economists still predicting 6.7 to 7.2% GDP growth for China through 2017

The most accurate economic analysts of China's GDP growth and economic statistics for the last two years (according to Bloomberg tracking of their predictions) generally believe that China will have about 6.7 to 7.2% GDP growth in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

As gloom gathered over China's economic outlook in March last year, Goldman Sachs economist Song Yu declared growth likely had "troughed" and a rebound would follow. The top forecaster on China's economy was proven right, and sees a repeat this year.

Goldman's Song was unfazed by an unexpected drop in April exports and says his optimism over a second-quarter rebound for the economy is buoyed by an anticipated tailwind from external demand. Goldman expects US growth will rebound this quarter in the same way it did in 2014, Song said.

On a quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, gross domestic product growth will pick up to 6.9 per cent this quarter, he estimates. Song projects GDP will expand 6.8 per cent this year - near Premier Li Keqiang's target of about 7 per cent - and full-year growth of 6.7 per cent in 2016.

This year and next will be the bottom for China's economic growth, with stabilisation from 2017, according to fifth-ranked forecaster Zhu Qibing of China Minzu Securities in Beijing.

Paris-based Yao Wei of Societe Generale SA, ranked third by Bloomberg, says the economy is fluctuating around a long-term downward trend and expects growth for the whole year of 6.8 per cent. She said forecasting from a different continent can help cut the noise of daily news flow.

"Policy makers understand growth has to come down," Yao said. "So although they will take measures to avoid a hard landing, at the end of the day they will still let deceleration continue."

"I am not as pessimistic as some China bears about growth prospects," said second-ranked Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications Co. in Shanghai. "It's not necessary to revise our forecasts for China's headline GDP growth in 2015 - the range between 7 per cent and 7.2 per cent is still quite possible."