Selective breeding has been used on animals for hundreds of years and statistical methods for breeding selection has been used for over one hundred years.
“Over the past 15 years, sprinters have improved faster than over the previous 150 years,” says Patrick Sharman of the University of Exeter.
Sharman and Alastair Wilson, also at Exeter, analysed 616,084 race times in the UK by 70,388 horses between 1850 and 2012. They then took a closer look at races between 1997 and 2012, for which more extensive and accurate data was available, including the speeds of non-winners inferred from finishing times.
The results show that since 1850, the speeds of winning horses in elite races have improved by 9-13 per cent, depending on the distance run. Winning horses now run between 1.5 and 2 meters per second faster than their counterparts did in 1850.
In the period between 1997 and 2012, sprinters improved most, adding 0.1 per cent to their speeds per year. Non-winners improved, too, adding between 0.03 and 0.09 per cent to their speeds per year.
A 2012 horse would beat a 1997 horse in a sprint race by around 17 meters. The average winning margin in elite races is just 3 meters.
“The annual rates of improvement are very small, despite the attentions not only of breeders and genetic improvement but also of vets, nutritionists and other animal scientists,” says William Hill of the University of Edinburgh. “It contrasts with rates of improvement in farm livestock, with annual genetic change in growth of broilers and milk yields of cattle exceeding 1 per cent a year.”
Various studies on human twins show many traits there is no detectable non-additivity. That is, gene-gene interactions seem to be insignificant, and a simple linear genetic architecture is consistent with the results.
Linear predictive models in animal breeding for over one hundred years.
This means that as we sequence and compare genes for millions of people around 2020-2022 then we will identify the thousands of genes involved in intelligence. These intelligence genes will mostly be additive. We can identify the good genes that contribute to make people more intelligent.
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“Over the past 15 years, sprinters have improved faster than over the previous 150 years,” says Patrick Sharman of the University of Exeter.
Sharman and Alastair Wilson, also at Exeter, analysed 616,084 race times in the UK by 70,388 horses between 1850 and 2012. They then took a closer look at races between 1997 and 2012, for which more extensive and accurate data was available, including the speeds of non-winners inferred from finishing times.
The results show that since 1850, the speeds of winning horses in elite races have improved by 9-13 per cent, depending on the distance run. Winning horses now run between 1.5 and 2 meters per second faster than their counterparts did in 1850.
In the period between 1997 and 2012, sprinters improved most, adding 0.1 per cent to their speeds per year. Non-winners improved, too, adding between 0.03 and 0.09 per cent to their speeds per year.
A 2012 horse would beat a 1997 horse in a sprint race by around 17 meters. The average winning margin in elite races is just 3 meters.
“The annual rates of improvement are very small, despite the attentions not only of breeders and genetic improvement but also of vets, nutritionists and other animal scientists,” says William Hill of the University of Edinburgh. “It contrasts with rates of improvement in farm livestock, with annual genetic change in growth of broilers and milk yields of cattle exceeding 1 per cent a year.”
Various studies on human twins show many traits there is no detectable non-additivity. That is, gene-gene interactions seem to be insignificant, and a simple linear genetic architecture is consistent with the results.
Linear predictive models in animal breeding for over one hundred years.
This means that as we sequence and compare genes for millions of people around 2020-2022 then we will identify the thousands of genes involved in intelligence. These intelligence genes will mostly be additive. We can identify the good genes that contribute to make people more intelligent.
Read more »
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