There is a projection of world population based upon the availability of procedures that would extend life expectancy by 20 years or more appearing around 2020 and getting utilized in increasing amounts from 2020-2050.
In 2000-2005 there were many projections that world population would peak at 9 billion or below. In 2010, the projections were 10.1 billion and in 2012 it was 10.9 billion. The change was that African birthrates did not drop as quickly as expected. Since 2012, the estimates are that world population could be 11 to 12 billion in 2100 and would not peak.
Those projection are before consideration about success with longevity treatments. Also if Africa's birthrate stayed at current levels and did not drop at all then world population would be about 20-25 billion in 2100.
The extreme longevity scenarios could add 1 billion, 3 billion or 6 billion people to projections.
1 billion would be the difference between the 2010 and 2012 African fertility adjustment.
3 billion would be the difference between 2000 and 2015 African fertility adjustments.
6 billion would be like a worldwide fertility increase of about 0.5 children per couple.
Later in this article I discuss how we can scale food production.
I have also previously looked at scaling nuclear power.
Deep burn nuclear power options -
* fast neutron breeder reactors with onsite or offsite reprocessing of fuel can close the fuel cycle and eliminate nuclear waste (unburned fuel)
* molten salt reactors (like Terrestrial Energy) can increase the power derived from existing uranium by six times
Various reactors from China and Terrestrial Energy and others can be factory mass produced.
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In 2000-2005 there were many projections that world population would peak at 9 billion or below. In 2010, the projections were 10.1 billion and in 2012 it was 10.9 billion. The change was that African birthrates did not drop as quickly as expected. Since 2012, the estimates are that world population could be 11 to 12 billion in 2100 and would not peak.
Those projection are before consideration about success with longevity treatments. Also if Africa's birthrate stayed at current levels and did not drop at all then world population would be about 20-25 billion in 2100.
The extreme longevity scenarios could add 1 billion, 3 billion or 6 billion people to projections.
1 billion would be the difference between the 2010 and 2012 African fertility adjustment.
3 billion would be the difference between 2000 and 2015 African fertility adjustments.
6 billion would be like a worldwide fertility increase of about 0.5 children per couple.
Later in this article I discuss how we can scale food production.
I have also previously looked at scaling nuclear power.
Deep burn nuclear power options -
* fast neutron breeder reactors with onsite or offsite reprocessing of fuel can close the fuel cycle and eliminate nuclear waste (unburned fuel)
* molten salt reactors (like Terrestrial Energy) can increase the power derived from existing uranium by six times
Various reactors from China and Terrestrial Energy and others can be factory mass produced.
Read more »
