The US, Europe and Japan have been slow growing economies. With less than 2.5% GDP growth there is almost no new reactors other than replacing broken ones and shifting some power to where people are moving. 1% is from gains in efficiency.
This is why China (and other emerging countries like India) where the fast growth is building most of the new power generation of all types. 70 nuclear reactors are being built worldwide. China is making 30 of them and at about $2 billion per GWe and completing them in 5 years time.
China will have double the US power generation by 2030. China will already be about 30% more than the US next year. China will spin up a lot more nuclear power as part of its energy mix. China trying to push coal to less than 50%. Then using hydro, natural gas, nuclear, wind and solar.
The US has fracking and cheap natural gas. They are half as polluting as the coal.
If the US had massive conversion to electric cars, then new electricity generation would be needed.
Tesla Model S electric cars have 60 KWh in batteries. If there were 200 million electric cars (like the Tesla and future electric SUVs. The assumption is that people will not want weaker cars to replace existing cars. Although nearly perfectly safe robotic cars could remove a lot of the weight of extra physical safety systems, which would make lighter and more efficient cars.) with heavy usage (50-100 miles per day) then 2000 TWh of power generation would be needed. This would 50% more than the current power generation needs of the USA.
Night time charging would reduce and possibly eliminate the need for new power generators to be produced. There is less electricity usage at night. This would still require more natural gas and coal, which could still be constrained or more costly.
It is conceivable that electric and plug in hybrids could become the dominant car preference in the 2030s and be the main types of cars on the road in the 2040s.
Even fracking and increased natural gas could be strained to bring on that much electrical power for the USA without significant price increases. This would make alternatives more affordable and a bigger part of the energy mix.
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This is why China (and other emerging countries like India) where the fast growth is building most of the new power generation of all types. 70 nuclear reactors are being built worldwide. China is making 30 of them and at about $2 billion per GWe and completing them in 5 years time.
China will have double the US power generation by 2030. China will already be about 30% more than the US next year. China will spin up a lot more nuclear power as part of its energy mix. China trying to push coal to less than 50%. Then using hydro, natural gas, nuclear, wind and solar.
The US has fracking and cheap natural gas. They are half as polluting as the coal.
If the US had massive conversion to electric cars, then new electricity generation would be needed.
Tesla Model S electric cars have 60 KWh in batteries. If there were 200 million electric cars (like the Tesla and future electric SUVs. The assumption is that people will not want weaker cars to replace existing cars. Although nearly perfectly safe robotic cars could remove a lot of the weight of extra physical safety systems, which would make lighter and more efficient cars.) with heavy usage (50-100 miles per day) then 2000 TWh of power generation would be needed. This would 50% more than the current power generation needs of the USA.
Night time charging would reduce and possibly eliminate the need for new power generators to be produced. There is less electricity usage at night. This would still require more natural gas and coal, which could still be constrained or more costly.
It is conceivable that electric and plug in hybrids could become the dominant car preference in the 2030s and be the main types of cars on the road in the 2040s.
Even fracking and increased natural gas could be strained to bring on that much electrical power for the USA without significant price increases. This would make alternatives more affordable and a bigger part of the energy mix.
Read more »
