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China's historical GDP catchup to the USA with a look at inflation and exchange rate

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There is a history of China's GDP at wikipedia from 1978 to 2012. This illustrates how inflation and currency exchange versus GDP growth differential factor into China move from US$216 billion to $8.2 trillion.

In the blue outline below is the column with growth in Chinese Yuan. This includes inflation but does not include changes in exchange rate to the US dollar. Some years had 22% and even 36% changes from the prior year.

In the red outline below is the column with growth of the Chinese economy in US dollars. Some years had 28-30% changes.

Note that in the last 7 years the chinese yuan change was always less than the US $ change. The chinese yuan was always getting stronger. Back in 1994 the chinese yuan change was 36% but the US$ change was -8.8%. This was because they dropped the exchange rate and more yuan were needed to get US dollars.

In the green outline is the columnn with the real growth of the Chinese economy. These are the numbers that are usually reported. This is without inflation and without exchange rate.

The US dollar of 1978 was not the same as the US dollar of 2012. The US economy had its own inflation. Usually China had more inflation. In the last 7 years, this meant that China had more inflation but still had a strengthening currency. So the relative change is related to the inflation differential between the two countries.

From 2000 to 2012, the Chinese economy went from 9 times smaller than the US economy to half as big. The 2013 numbers which are not shown show the Chinese economy being about 58% the size of the US economy.


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