Pax Americana (1946-today) followed Pax Brittanica (1815-1914). Those were where the world was often more at peace with America and Britain leading the world. Note- the theory is the world was more at peace but not completely at peace. What would the Soviet Union and Stalin had done if the United States had not been there ?
I think that major power warfare will be prevented by Pax Nuclear Weapons for the next 15-20 years. In spite of the more aggressive actions taken by Putin. Russia will not reconstitute the Soviet Union.
Major countries are and will continue to primarily have economic competition. If the banks were too big to fail in 2007, then the US and China would not mess with each other because they would wreck the banks. The Pax of Mutually Assured Financial Destruction.
A G zero world is a world with no superpower and where merely great powers rarely police the world. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasian Group makes a case for a G zero world in articles and video talks.
In a World without an engaged superpower for policing it is still a mostly peaceful world. The major powers cannot be bothered to spend the money or effort to police most situations and they will not go to even more trouble to fight each other [Pax not worth the hassle]. The smaller trouble maker countries may fight more and will get away with it so long as there is not oil or some significant interest involved. [like Syria]
China will not step up to the US role until China's per capita income is a lot more.
China's military is not professional. There are reports that during a 15 day military exercise that troops had to get a movie night, karaoke and hookers on day 9 because the troops were homesick. China is focused on using the military for internal political control.
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I think that major power warfare will be prevented by Pax Nuclear Weapons for the next 15-20 years. In spite of the more aggressive actions taken by Putin. Russia will not reconstitute the Soviet Union.
Major countries are and will continue to primarily have economic competition. If the banks were too big to fail in 2007, then the US and China would not mess with each other because they would wreck the banks. The Pax of Mutually Assured Financial Destruction.
A G zero world is a world with no superpower and where merely great powers rarely police the world. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasian Group makes a case for a G zero world in articles and video talks.
In a World without an engaged superpower for policing it is still a mostly peaceful world. The major powers cannot be bothered to spend the money or effort to police most situations and they will not go to even more trouble to fight each other [Pax not worth the hassle]. The smaller trouble maker countries may fight more and will get away with it so long as there is not oil or some significant interest involved. [like Syria]
China will not step up to the US role until China's per capita income is a lot more.
China's military is not professional. There are reports that during a 15 day military exercise that troops had to get a movie night, karaoke and hookers on day 9 because the troops were homesick. China is focused on using the military for internal political control.
Read more »
